A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
