Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
