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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But the latest race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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